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Ndikung, B. In Search for Europe? Shohat, E. The Visual Culture Reader, p. Vogel, S. Winegar, J. Available from: www. However, remittances may also have some negative effects for the recipient economy: They might create dependency on a flow of external rent2 and increase the influence of external shocks on the business climate of a country.
Moreover, the massive inflow of capital may increase the exposure to inflation. Also labour supply may be reduced, as due to the existence of alternative sources of income for households. Since the s, work-related migration of Jordanians has become an increasingly significant phenomenon.
As originally mainly due to the oil boom, many Jordanians have moved to different countries of the Gulf. The trend to migrate persists until today and Jordan has a significant number of citizens residing and working in many industrialised countries. Exploiting the wage differential, the migrants transfer back home a significant amount of remittances. It seems, however, that, despite of the difficult economic situation in North Africa, of the economic crisis and of the tighter immigration policies in the European Union, remittances to SubSaharan Africa have increased to 7.
Before , it has been on the contrary a period of lower remittances and some analysts have actually interpreted this fact as contributing to the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia Acevedo, The present study, thus, aims to analyse the impact of the Arab Spring on the remittances inflowing to Jordan.
The underlying hypothesis is that the Arab Spring, even if it did not culminate into a regime change in Jordan, is a regional phenomenon having deeper social, political, and economic consequences for all countries of the Middle East. As a proof of such a hypothesis, the Arab Spring should imply profound changes in the patterns of remittances accruing to Jordan, too. With changes in the patterns is 53 54 N. Kasawneh: The Impact of the Arab Spring on Remittances Flows to Jordan here not only meant a change in the absolute size of remittances, but changes in the regularities underlying them and in the relations between remittances and typical determinants of them.
To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first contribution which empirically and statistically analyses the effects of the current political and social changes in the MENA region in relation to remittances inflow to a specific country.
Section 3 presents then a short overview on models of remittances, while section 4 introduces the framework for the empirical analysis of the effects of the Arab Spring on the remittances accruing to Jordan. Section 5 deals with the main results of the study and section 6 and 7 conclude the paper. As due to the current instabilities in Egypt, natural gas imports have become more expensive, as provision from Egypt has significantly reduced during the whole IMF, Jordan currently faces several economic challenges that are also common to many other countries of the region Sullivan et al.
More specifically, according to IMF official estimations of unemployment, by the end of , In , the age-dependency ratio was The first big protest episode occurred on 14th January, , followed by other demonstrations demanding the dismissal of the Prime Minister, Samir Rifai. If on the one hand, numerous protests escalated violently,13 on the other hand, in response to them, the strategy of the King was to make small concessions: As an example, in a speech in June , King Abdallah II promised to limit his own powers concerning the nomination of the Prime Minister and his cabinet.
Following a summer of further demonstrations, on 17th October the King dismissed the cabinet. Protests continued for the rest of and then calmed down in But the political climate did not become more stable, with Prime Minister Al Khasawneh resigning in April New parliamentary elections were announced and took place in January Protests against the increase in the fuel prices, which was due to the cut in subsidies as long advised by the IMF, escalated into real riots.
Among the reasons for Jordan not having experienced a radical regime change so far may be the concessive behaviour of the monarchy notwithstanding repression of several demonstrations , as well as the fact that protests even though of size without precedent for Jordan never assumed the mass character they had in other countries. Possible further and rather economic reasons may be the patrimonial character of the state and the social contract resulting in the public sector being the main employer for a still large part of the population Carroll, Further, the massive accruing of international aid has contributed to the political and social stability of Jordan.
Models of Remittances Remittances from migrant workers are a quite relevant source of external capital for many countries and have therefore recently received more attention in the literature. There are several models to explain the reasons for migrant workers to remit part of their income home and different paradigms trying to define the main determinants of remittances.
Concerning the reasons of remittances, there are several different explanations that have been proposed in the literature: the most important models are based on altruism, self-interest, implicit family contracts, and strategic reasons.
The motives of remittances can be typically understood by looking at their main determinants and at their impact, as summarised in Table 1. Gravity models of remittances further typically include other variables, such as income level GDP per capita , limitations to trade, cultural similarities etc. Some specifications of the model also take time effects into account.
A further interesting line of analysis is exploring the political consequences of remittances. As corollaries to the safety valve hypothesis there are studies empirically corroborating the idea that remittances increase corruption Abdih et al. Even though the direction of the relationship between remittances and protests may be different from one country to the other, it is interesting to see that remittances do have a political effect.
In this perspective, it may not have been only a coincidence that in Egypt and Tunisia the protests leading to the regime changes happened when remittances were decreasing Acevedo, Design of the Empirical Investigation and Research Hypothesis One of the challenges of analysing the effects of the Arab Spring on the flows of remittances accruing to Jordan is, without any doubt, the short time horizon to which the research question relates.
For the purpose of the empirical analysis, the Arab Spring has been dated back to the fourth quarter of Thus, there is a total of 9 quarters that relate to the period after the Arab Spring. This is obviously too small a number of observations for applying typical macroeconomic techniques of econometric analysis, such as regressions and analysis of variance. Kasawneh: The Impact of the Arab Spring on Remittances Flows to Jordan In a second step of analysis, the same correlations are tested against the quarterly data time series between and , whether similar correlation coefficients are necessary, as in many cases there can be radical differences between short- and long-horizon correlations Turley, A further reason for this second step is that correlation is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables and, thus, may be, e.
Tracing back the Arab Spring to the last quarter of , in the third step of analysis differences in the correlation coefficients between remittances are further checked, i. We thus compare this small sample of respectively nine quarterly data entries per variable i. The exact specification of the four sub-periods considered according to the design for the empirical analysis is presented in Table 2.
As to the rest of the world, the most recent data c. The total number of Jordanian migrants thus stands at ,, or 5. Among the European countries hosting a large number of Jordanian migrants there are Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
The report, however, admits difficulties in collecting reliable data on the number of Jordanian work-related migration Migration Policy Centre, As further important emigration countries, Libya and Palestine, have been excluded because of data availability and reliability. Quarterly data stems all from the Central Bank of Jordan, except the variable related to the average GDP of host countries. Table 3 provides an overview on the quarterly data on remittances accruing to Jordan, as published by the Central Bank of Jordan.
Different data sources are specified in the text. The majority of them lived in the United Arab Emirates A fact which emerges at first glance, and which will be corroborated by correlation analysis, is the synchronicity of remittances with GDP movements.
As discussed in Alshyab , remittances accruing to Jordan are strongly pro-cyclical and synchronous with GDP movements.
Pro-cyclicality and synchronicity may corroborate the idea of investment motives, rather than altruism, driving remittances to Jordan, but may also simply refer to the fact that the Jordanian economy is strongly influenced by the business cycle in the Gulf countries IMF, , which host a large number of Jordanian migrant workers. There is, on the contrary, no significant correlation between remittances and aid, so that aid has not been further considered.
The significant and strong correlation between the GDP of Jordan and of the countries hosting Jordanian migrants is definitely a nonsurprising result. Having considered nominal GDP, it was expected to be strongly and significantly related to the consumer price index. A similar picture is confirmed by examining, as second step of analysis, quarterly data for the same variables.
They are checked for similar correlation coefficients between quarterly variables and over a shorter time horizon, i. The results are presented in Table 5. Period Pearson's 1 Rem. Correlations , quarterly data Rem. Strength, direction, and significance of correlations do not basically differ from the results based on annual data.
Thus, after having proven the validity of correlation patterns over quarterly data step 2 , it is possible to proceed to the third step of analysis. The most interesting results about correlations over the four sub-samples of periods are summarised in Table 6.
We were here first of all interested in strength and direction of such correlation coefficients and less in their significance. This is clear looking at the much lower coefficients, as well as their non-significance. Thus, it can be said that the Arab Spring is disrupting the existing patterns of remittances. Its effect seems to be even deeper than the effects of the financial and economic crisis of period 2 , a crisis that caused a decrease in remittances but still did not significantly change the strength of the correlation between remittances and GDP.
What was affected during the nine quarters of perios 2 which makes a lot of sense, actually was essentially a much lower and much less significant correlation between inflation captured by CPI and remittances. The variable GDP of OECD-host countries may here actually depict a less realistic picture: Since remittances to Jordan are much dependent on the GDP of Gulf countries, too, and since those countries were less affected by the financial crisis of than the OECD countries considered,22 the fact of having excluded due to data availability those countries may have led to a biased too large reduction in the correlation coefficients.
Overall, period 3 and 4 can be considered as reliable proof of the existence of stable patterns of remittances, due to the similarity of their correlation coefficients with those valid for the entire period between and Discussion and Implications Overall, the study provides evidence for the Arab Spring significantly affecting the patterns of remittances inflowing to Jordan: Comparing the correlations between remittances and their main macroeconomic determinants for Jordan, it emerges that the strength of the relations before the Arab Spring are no longer valid.
Thus, the Arab Spring can be said to have deeply affected the equilibrium with remittances. Thanks to the correlation analysis, it is possible to disentangle the decrease in the remittances due to the economic and financial crisis of with the further decreasing trend due to the Arab Spring.
Kasawneh: The Impact of the Arab Spring on Remittances Flows to Jordan In other words, this study has empirically demonstrated that the patterns of remittances have been changed in the period of the Arab Spring. This corroborates the research hypothesis of the present study and points at the Arab Spring as mainly responsible for the reduction in the amount of remittances. This is a striking fact that government and political actors should take into consideration.
Nevertheless, this study is intended to be just a first contribution in this regard, as further research is needed in order to understand the motivations behind the disruption of previously existing patterns of remittances. Previous research has basically provided evidence for pro-cyclicality and synchronicity of remittances accruing to Jordan. These results can be typically linked to investment motives underlying remittances.
Relying on a similar line of analysis, it could make sense to interpret the Arab Spring as an increase in the uncertainty in Jordan: such an increase may have discouraged migrant workers from the search for investments in their home country. Anyhow, only further research may clarify this point: As possible further research developments there are, in the first row, qualitative studies on Jordanian migrants and their households.
Conclusion The paper shows that the Arab Spring has not only aggravated the reduction in remittances which started with the financial crisis of , but it has also disrupted previously existing correlations and trends. The Arab Spring has deeply changed the patterns of remittances to Jordan and these changes are quite more substantial than the changes brought by the financial crisis. Their inflow has, thus, become less predictable and this may yield important policy implications and should be considered by policy-makers.
The further reduction of remittances since the Arab Spring can be interpreted as due to the uncertainty and to the political and economic instability, therefore politicymakers may wish to consider restoring the previous conditions to attract remittances.
Chami et al. Alshyab, Nevertheless, we believe that timely analysis with regard to remittances is particularly needed, as it can assist policy makers and stakeholders to take appropriate steps.
Harders, It is further specified that male youth unemployment is about Jordan Economy Profile, Herein, the age dependency ratio is defined as the proportion of dependents i.
A further study supporting the use of correlations rather than variance ratios for capturing price co-movement over the short term is Turley Bibliography Abdih, Y. Khamis, M. Acevedo, J. Lueth, R. Ahmed, F. Magaloni, B. Alshyab, N. Berenson, M. Malik, A. Mirkin, B. Carrol, K. Chami, R. Mouhoud ed. Les nouvelles migrations: un enjeu Nord-Sud de la mondialisation Paris: Universalis.
Funkhouser, E. Harders, C. Hirschman, A. Mohapatra, S. Pfutze, T. Rapoport, H. Ratha, D. Sandri, S. Sayan, S.
Solimano, A. Stokes, S. Turley, R. Woodruff, C. Yang, D. And how did these dynamics change in the course of the last few years since the 25th January revolution? Excuse Me! Just a Little. What's Your Name? My Name Is. You're Very Kind! Where Are You From?
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